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2024-12-14 11:57:59

After the release of CPI data in the United States, the yield of euro zone bonds fell by about 1 basis point, and the yield of German 10-year bonds is now flat at 2.116%.Market News: Apple is cooperating with Broadcom around artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Apple chips may be ready for production in 2026.Traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut. After the CPI report was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut before the end of 2025. They now predict that by that time, they will cut interest rates by 87 basis points, which means that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. In 2025, there will be another two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each time, which is less than the four times proposed by Fed officials in the latest quarterly bitmap in September.


Albertson shares rose 1.6% before the market closed.The Baltic dry bulk freight index continued its decline, dragged down by the decline of all ship sectors. The Baltic dry bulk freight index continued its decline on Wednesday, hitting a 15-month low, dragged down by the decline of all ship types. The Baltic dry bulk freight index fell 50 points to 1106 points, the lowest level since September 2023. The freight index of capes dropped by 126 points to 1,377 points, also hitting the lowest level since September 2023. The average daily profit of Cape ships decreased by 1043 dollars to 11421 dollars. Panama shipping freight index fell 24 points to 1053 points. The average daily profit of Panamax decreased by 213 dollars to 9,478 dollars. The freight index of super-handy ships fell by 5 points to 962 points, the lowest level since August 2023.Before the release of CPI in the United States, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 86.1%. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged by December was 13.9%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points was 86.1%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 10.6%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 69.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 20.2%.


Broadcom shares rose 2.8% before the market closed.German Chancellor Angela Scholz submitted an application for a vote of confidence, and German Chancellor Angela Scholz sent a request to Parliament on Wednesday to hold a vote of confidence on December 16th, thus paving the way for early federal elections next year. Since the collapse of the coalition of political parties led by Scholz, the policy-making in Europe's largest economy has basically stagnated. If, as expected, Scholz loses the vote of confidence, he must ask the President to dissolve Parliament and hold a new election. Scholz and the opposition parties unanimously agreed to hold a general election on February 23rd next year. Last week, French Prime Minister Banier lost in a vote of no confidence, which highlighted the unusual political instability faced by these two European powers.OPEC Monthly Report: The recent steady economic growth trend is still continuing. The OPEC Monthly Report points out that in recent months, the steady economic growth trend is still continuing, especially in the United States, Brazil and Russia. In addition, China's stimulus measures and India's sustained growth momentum have contributed to supporting global economic growth. With these developments, the global economic growth in 2024 is expected to be 3.1%. The strong economic growth momentum is expected to continue until 2025 and is expected to reach 3.0%. However, the healthy growth observed in the United States during 2024 is expected to slow down slightly in 2025. However, the current growth forecast may be affected by the potential new policy measures being discussed by the incoming US government, such as trade tariffs, which will also affect the growth of US trading partner economies. In the euro zone, the recovery will continue gradually in the third quarter of 2024, but the improvement in the fourth quarter and 2025 is expected to be limited. Japan is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024 and continue until 2025, after a challenging period.

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